Germanium and gallium supply chain disruption escalates for U.S.

Last November, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated we could see a $3.4B decrease in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) if China decided to implement a total ban on exports of critical materials gallium and germanium (in response to U.S. bans of exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment and technologies), which are critical materials for optics, photonics, semiconductors, and electronics.

On December 3, China’s Commerce Ministry did indeed ban exports of gallium, germanium, antimony, and “superhard” (think diamond, cubic boron nitride) materials to the U.S. Since China happens to be the world’s leading producer and exporter of both gallium (90% since 2014) and germanium—and there isn’t much production capacity elsewhere—it’s a serious challenge (see video).

Gallium (in the form of gallium nitride or gallium arsenide) is commonly used to create products ranging from semiconductors/electronic devices to laser diodes and solar cells. And germanium is used in infrared optics, solar cells, and fiber optics. Both are used for numerous military applications.

The U.S. semiconductor device manufacturing industry is expected to be ones of the hardest hit by this move (with a predicted 40% of the net loss), and the USGS predicts prices of gallium could increase more than 150%, while germanium costs could rise by 26% with a total ban. Losing access to these materials that contribute to the value of products like semiconductors can quickly add up to billions in losses across the economy, according to the USGS.

What now? While a National Defense Stockpile exists, and deposits of gallium and germanium can be found within the U.S., the quest is now on to find substitutes or develop alternative materials. New efforts are underway to recover gallium and germanium from active and legacy mine waste, and there’s also a push to explore postconsumer recycling e-waste to recover gallium and germanium from discarded products.

This is an area we’ll be watching closely this year, and we’d like to hear from you about any impacts the ban’s causing and how you’re dealing with it.

FURTHER READING

See https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20241057.