Can commercial quantum computing come to fruition during the next decade?

Traditionally, when scientists and engineers encounter difficulties, they turn to supercomputers to solve them. The computer crunches the numbers and out pops the answer, right? Well, this isn’t always the case. Supercomputers aren’t so super and struggle to solve certain kinds of problems. So what happens next? We turn to quantum computing. Researchers have long predicted that quantum computers could tackle certain types of problems, especially ones that involve a daunting number of variables and potential outcomes—think simulations or optimization questions—much faster than any classical computer.

While classical computers rely on 0s and 1s, or “bits,” to process and relay information, quantum computers rely on quantum mechanics and use qubits (quantum bits) to process and relay information. Qubits can be 0, 1, 1 or 0, 0 or 1, 1 and 1, 0 and 0, all at the same time. This occurs because at the microscopic level, atomic particles such as protons or electrons or ions probabilistically take on states simultaneously. This phenomenon is called superposition. Superposition often takes the form of waves—akin to two musical notes playing at once. Another aspect of the quantum state is entanglement, which refers to the extremely strong correlation that exists between quantum particles even if they are very far away from each other, which Einstein referred to as “spooky action at a distance.” In theory, entangled particles will respond together simultaneously regardless of physical separation.

Thanks to superposition and entanglement, quantum computers can do simultaneous computations that classical computers can’t. Their ability to rapidly analyze petabyte datasets will be a huge help in medical research, financial services, machine learning, as well as having many applications we haven’t even thought of yet. Worryingly, experts believe the power of quantum computers may render conventional passwords and encryption vulnerable to cracking. It would take a traditional computer approximately 300 million years to crack the widely used RSA encryption algorithm, but some estimate the quantum computers of the future may achieve this within 10 seconds.

What do investors think?

Currently, billions of dollars, pounds, euros, and yen are being poured into the development and productization of quantum computing, with China hosting estimated funding of £13.3B ($17.6B), Europe at £7.2B ($9.5B), the U.S. at £2.1B ($2.7B), Japan at £1.8B ($2.3B), and the U.K. at £1.3B ($1.7B) in 2022.

With a significant proportion of that overall funding being pumped into the U.K., in 2022 quantum computing startup Universal Quantum was awarded at the time the largest government contract for quantum computing. Worth £67M ($88.8M), the award is to create quantum chips for scalable quantum computers for the German Aerospace Centre in Hamburg. This was only recently surpassed by a £496M ($658M) contract awarded by the Australian Government to PsiQuantum toward the end of 2024.

£1.2B ($1.5B) was invested in quantum technology in 2024, with a further £30.25B ($40.12B) committed by governments during the next decade to support developments. Leading into 2025, some of Europe’s top quantum startups have seen increased investment, including Quantinuum with £617M ($818M), Alice & Bob with £150M ($198M), Pascal with £140M ($185M), and Riverlane with £131M ($173M).

Is the future quantum?

The market for quantum computing is predicted to grow from £412M ($546M) in 2020 to £8.6B ($11.4B) in 2027, but this feels instinctively like an underestimation. Today’s limited offerings will soon be replaced by a new generation of quantum computing platforms and trigger a surge in customer demand.

The market was mostly limited to national research laboratories and supercomputing labs, but commercial adoption is underway, beginning with the tech giants. Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and IBM are all partnering with quantum computing startups to provide quantum-based cloud services or are developing their own machines. By the end of 2025, IBM, for example, aims to build its own quantum computer with 1,000 qubits—which is the point at which quantum computers are expected to challenge the performance of classical counterparts. Google plans to have one by 2029.

The standing joke within the quantum community for the last 40 years has been that a quantum computer is five to 10 years away—always just teetering on the horizon of possible. Today, we are much closer to achieving commercial quantum usage for real applications and many would argue we’ve already arrived. Size, cooling, price, speed, and impact are all part of the long tail of improvements being made, but it would seem we’re at the point where commercial application, investment, and opportunity are knocking at the door.