Multiple-camera computerized ball-tracking system quashes European football myth

Sunderland, England, Pontevedra, Spain, and Barcelona, Spain--Researchers from the University of Sunderland, the University of Vigo, and the medical department of the Futbol Club Barcelona have determined that one of the enduring beliefs in European football—that one team can tire the other team by keeping the ball—is a myth.¹

The researchers collected data from the actions of 810 players, both home and visitor (with the players' permission) in 54 matches at the English FA Premier League, by deploying cameras at roof level and using specialized software to pick out the players' movements, speeds, distances covered, how many passes they made, and other parameters.

Don't 'let the ball do the work'

For years, coaches, pundits, and fans have believed teams should “let the ball do the work” because the other team will have to run further to regain possession. This is believed to enable world-class players to tire their opponents out and help them conserve their energy. However, the research shows they cover the same distances whether teams have the ball or not.

They found that no differences were observed for total distance covered by football teams with low percentage of ball possession and those who had the ball more often. This trend continued when it came to high-intensity running and sprinting.

This research also comes at the end of the season when Glasgow Celtic beat the Champions League favorites Barcelona despite only having approximately 16% of ball possession.

The research showed that running with the ball at a high intensity happened 31% more by teams with a high percentage of possession than those with a low percentage. In contrast, those teams with a high percentage of possession ran 22% less at a high intensity than those with a low percentage when they did not have the ball.

“We didn’t find any statistical difference in their physical exertions during the game," says Paul Bradley, a senior lecturer in sport and exercise science at the University of Sunderland. "However, as expected, the technical indicators did show superior differences between those that keep the ball and those that don’t. The myth is that if you cover a large amount of distance then you tend to have a lower percentage of possession, but these findings show it isn’t the case at all." He notes that there is less than 1% difference between high- and low-percentage-of-possession football teams. "They’re obviously superior in terms of how many passes they make, but not in distance," he adds.

More advice from the report: "[T]eams playing against possession-based opposition should not expect a more physically demanding match given the similarities in high-intensity-running and low-possession ball playing teams, but be instructed to be prepared for all eventualities, particularly plenty of high-intensity running to regain the ball."

REFERENCE:

1. Paul S. Bradley et al., Journal of Sports Sciences, published online May 22, 2013; see http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02640414.2013.786185